Association of Continuity of Care With Health Care Utilization and Expenditures Among Patients Discharged Home After Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of prestroke continuity of care (COC) with postdischarge health care utilization and expenditures. STUDY POPULATION: The study population included 2233 patients with a diagnosis of stroke or a transient ischemic attack hospitalized in one of 41 hospitals in North Carolina between March 2016 and July 2019 and discharged directly home from acute care. METHODS: COC was assessed from linked Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare claims using the Modified, Modified Continuity Index. Logistic regressions and 2-part models were used to examine the association of prestroke primary care COC with postdischarge health care utilization and expenditures. RESULTS: Relative to patients in the first (lowest) COC quartile, patients in the second and third COC quartiles were more likely [21% (95% CI: 8.5%, 33.5%) and 33% (95% CI: 20.5%, 46.1%), respectively] to have an ambulatory care visit within 14 days. Patients in the highest COC quartile were more likely to visit a primary care provider but less likely to see a stroke specialist. Highest as compared with lowest primary care COC quartile was associated with $45 lower (95% CI: $14, $76) average expenditure for ambulatory care visits within 30 days postdischarge. Patients in the highest, as compared with the lowest, primary care COC quartile were 36% less likely (95% CI: 8%, 64%) to be readmitted within 30 days postdischarge and spent $340 less (95% CI: $2, $678) on unplanned readmissions. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the importance of primary care COC received before stroke hospitalization to postdischarge care and expenditures.

Economic Evaluation of a Nonmedical Financial Assistance Program on Missed Treatment Appointments Among Adults With Cancer.

PURPOSE: We retrospectively evaluated the clinical and economic impact of a program providing nonmedical financial assistance on missed treatment appointments among patients receiving cancer treatment at a large, Southeastern public hospital system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used patient electronic health records, program records, and cancer registry data to examine the impact of the program on rates of missed (or no-show) radiation therapy and infusion chemotherapy/immunotherapy appointments in the 180 days after treatment initiation. We used propensity weighting to estimate the effect of the program, stratified by treatment appointment type (radiation therapy, infusion chemotherapy/immunotherapy). We developed a decision tree-based economic model to conduct a cost-consequence analysis from the health system perspective in a hypothetical cohort over a 6-month time horizon. RESULTS: Of 1,347 patients receiving radiation therapy between 2015 and 2019, 53% (n = 715) had ≥1 no-shows and 28% (n = 378) received program assistance. Receipt of any assistance was associated with a 2.1 percentage point (95% CI, 0.6 to 3.5) decrease in the proportion of no-shows, corresponding to a 51% decrease in the overall mean no-show proportion. Under the current funding model, the program is estimated to save the health system $153 in US dollars per missed appointment averted, relative to not providing nonmedical financial assistance. Of the 1,641 patients receiving infusion chemotherapy/immunotherapy, 33% (n = 541) received program assistance, and only 14% (n = 223) had ≥1 no-shows. The financial assistance program did not have a significant effect on no-show proportions among infusion visits. CONCLUSION: This study used a novel approach to retrospectively evaluate a nonmedical financial assistance program for patients undergoing active cancer treatment. Findings support investment in programs that address patients' nonmedical financial needs, particularly for those undergoing intensive radiation therapy.

Cost-based Underinsurance After the Affordable Care Act.

The Affordable Care Act has significantly reduced the number of uninsured individuals in the U.S., yet millions of insured Americans lack adequate coverage or face substantial health-related financial risks. In this study, we conduct an analysis of a nationally representative sample to generate up-to-date evidence on the association between insurance types and demographic factors and the probability of cost-related underinsurance among continuously insured, lower-income adults in the U.S. We extend the previously established definition of underinsurance by including a measure of subjective financial burden. Our estimates suggest that 33.2% of lower-income individuals in our sample were underinsured, with a fourth of them meeting two or three criteria. We also find that Medicaid beneficiaries were significantly less likely than others to experience underinsurance. Our findings provide evidence that underinsurance is a major concern, and expansion of coverage alone may not suffice to protect individuals from financial risks and cost barriers to health care use.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative tax policies on sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico.

In 2014, Mexico implemented a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) equivalent to one Mexican peso (MP) per liter to address the high obesity prevalence. This tax has effectively reduced SSB purchases and yielded healthcare savings; however, it remains unknown whether SSB taxes lead to net benefits at the societal level in Mexico. Moreover, public health experts recommend increasing the tax. The objective of this study is to estimate the net benefits of SSB taxes compared to a scenario of no tax in urban Mexico. Taxes include the one-MP tax and alternative higher taxes (two and three MP per SSB liter). Thus, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis from the perspective of the government, producers, and consumers for a simulated closed cohort of adults in a life-table model. We defined net benefits as the difference between economic benefits (the value of statistical life, healthcare savings, and tax revenue) and costs (consumer surplus and profit losses). We found that, at the societal level, all simulated taxes will eventually generate benefits that surpass costs within ten years. Overall net benefits can reach USD 7.1 billion and 15.3 billion for the one-MP and the three-MP tax, respectively. Hence, these benefits increased at a declining rate compared to taxes. The government and consumers will experience overall positive net benefits among society's members. Policymakers should consider time horizons and tradeoffs between health gains and economic outcomes across different society members.

Can Medicaid be a Solution to the Problem? Underinsurance in Medicaid Expansion Versus Non-Expansion States.

The positive effects of Medicaid expansions have been extensively documented in the literature. However, it is not clear whether the reform has had an equally meaningful effect with respect to underinsurance, which is the state of having health insurance yet lacking adequate coverage or facing substantial financial risks upon usage of services. Based on a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, we analyzed the data from a nationally representative sample to estimate the effect of Medicaid expansion on the probability of underinsurance among the non-elderly low-income adult population of the U.S. We found no evidence of significant changes in the likelihood of underinsurance due to Medicaid expansion during the first 4 years after the ACA implementation. However, a supplementary analysis of the longer-term impact (2018-2019) suggests that there might be a time lag between Medicaid expansion and its effect on underinsurance. It is important to realize that expansion of coverage alone may not be sufficient to protect millions of Americans, particularly those with low incomes, from underinsurance. It is, therefore, crucial for policymakers to build legislative frameworks that protect individuals from excessive healthcare expenses and prevent treatment avoidance or delay.

Implementation costs of sugary drink policies in the United States.

To support implementation of important public health policies, policymakers need information about implementation costs over time and across stakeholder groups. We assessed implementation costs of two federal sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) policies of current policy interest and with evidence to support their effects: excise taxes and health warning labels. Our analysis encompassed the entire policy life cycle using the Exploration, Preparation, Implementation, and Sustainment framework. We identified implementation actions using key informant interviews and developed quantitative estimates of implementation costs using published literature and government documents. Results show that implementation costs vary over time and among stakeholders. Explicitly integrating implementation science theory and using mixed methods improved the comprehensiveness of our results. Although this work is specific to federal SSB policies, the process can inform how we understand the costs of many public health policies, providing crucial information for public health policy making.

Postacute Expenditures Among Patients Discharged Home After Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack: The COMprehensive Post-Acute Stroke Services (COMPASS) Trial.

OBJECTIVES: The COMPASS (COMprehensive Post-Acute Stroke Services) pragmatic trial cluster-randomized 40 hospitals in North Carolina to the COMPASS transitional care (TC) postacute care intervention or usual care. We estimated the difference in healthcare expenditures postdischarge for patients enrolled in the COMPASS-TC model of care compared with usual care. METHODS: We linked data for patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack enrolled in the COMPASS trial with administrative claims from Medicare fee-for-service (n = 2262), Medicaid (n = 341), and a large private insurer (n = 234). The primary outcome was 90-day total expenditures, analyzed separately by payer. Secondary outcomes were total expenditures 30- and 365-days postdischarge and, among Medicare beneficiaries, expenditures by point of service. In addition to intent-to-treat analysis, we conducted a per-protocol analysis to compare Medicare patients who received the intervention with those who did not, using randomization status as an instrumental variable. RESULTS: We found no statistically significant difference in total 90-day postacute expenditures between intervention and usual care; the results were consistent across payers. Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in the COMPASS intervention arm had higher 90-day hospital readmission expenditures ($682, 95% CI $60-$1305), 30-day emergency department expenditures ($132, 95% CI $13-$252), and 30-day ambulatory care expenditures ($67, 95% CI $38-$96) compared with usual care. The per-protocol analysis did not yield a significant difference in 90-day postacute care expenditures for Medicare COMPASS patients. CONCLUSIONS: The COMPASS-TC model did not significantly change patients' total healthcare expenditures for up to 1 year postdischarge.

Association of patient-reported financial barriers with healthcare utilization among Medicare beneficiaries with a history of cancer.

PURPOSE: We examined characteristics associated with financial barriers to healthcare and the association of financial barriers with adverse healthcare events among US adult cancer survivors enrolled in Medicare. METHODS: We used nationally representative Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data (2011-2013, 2015-2017) to identify adults with a history of non-skin cancer. We defined financial barriers as cost-related trouble accessing and/or delayed care in the prior year. Using propensity-weighted multivariable logistic regression, we examined associations between financial barriers and adverse healthcare events (any ED visits, any inpatient hospitalizations). RESULTS: Overall, 11.0% of adult Medicare beneficiaries with a history of cancer reported financial barriers in the prior year, with higher burden among beneficiaries < 65 years of age vs. ≥ 65 (32.5% vs. 8.2%, p < 0.0001) and with annual income < $25,000 vs. ≥ $25,000 (18.1% vs. 6.9%, p < 0.0001). In bivariate models, financial barriers were associated with a 7.8 percentage point (95% CI: 1.5-14.0) increase in the probability of ED visits. In propensity-weighted models, this association was not statistically significant. The association between financial barriers and hospitalizations was not significant in the overall population; however, financial barriers were associated with a decreased probability of hospitalization among Black/African American beneficiaries. CONCLUSIONS: Despite Medicare coverage, beneficiaries with a history of cancer are at risk for experiencing financial barriers to healthcare. In the overall population, financial barriers were not associated with ED visits or hospitalizations. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: Policies limiting Medicare patient out-of-pocket spending and care models addressing health-related social needs are needed to reduce financial barriers experienced.

High Deductible Health Plans and Use of Free Preventive Services Under the Affordable Care Act.

The Affordable Care Act aimed to increase use of preventive services by eliminating cost-sharing to consumers. However, patients may be unaware of this benefit or they may not seek preventive services if they anticipate that the cost of potential diagnostic or treatment services will be too high, both more likely among those in high deductible health plans. We used nationally representative private health insurance claims (100% sample of IBM® MarketScan®) for the United States from 2006 to 2018, restricting the data to enrollment and claims for non-elderly adults who were enrolled for the full plan year. The cross-sectional sample (185 million person-years) is used to describe trends in preventive service use and costs from 2008 through 2016. The cohort sample (9 million people) focuses on the elimination of cost-sharing for certain high-value preventive services in late 2010, requiring continuous enrollment across 2010 and 2011. We examine whether HDHP enrollment is associated with use of eligible preventive services using semi-parametric difference-in-differences to account for endogenous plan selection. Our preferred model implies that HDHP enrollment was associated with a reduction of the post-ACA change in any use of eligible preventive services by 0.2 percentage points or 12.5%. Cancer screenings were unaffected but HDHP enrollment was associated with smaller increases in wellness visits, immunizations, and screening for chronic conditions and sexually transmitted infections. We also find that the policy was ineffective at reducing out-of-pocket costs for the eligible preventive services, likely due to implementation issues.

Association between low-income subsidies and inequities in orally administered antimyeloma therapy use.

OBJECTIVES: The Medicare Part D low-income subsidy program drastically reduces patient cost sharing and may improve access to and equitable use of high-cost antimyeloma therapy. We compared initiation of and adherence to orally administered antimyeloma therapy between full-subsidy and nonsubsidy enrollees and assessed the association between full subsidies and racial/ethnic inequities in orally administered antimyeloma treatment use. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We used Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data to identify beneficiaries diagnosed with multiple myeloma between 2007 and 2015. Separate Cox proportional hazards models assessed time from diagnosis to treatment initiation and time from therapy initiation to discontinuation. Modified Poisson regression examined therapy initiation in the 30, 60, and 90 days following diagnosis and adherence to and discontinuation of treatment in the 180 days following initiation. RESULTS: Receipt of full subsidies was not associated with earlier initiation of or improved adherence to orally administered antimyeloma therapy. Full-subsidy enrollees were 22% (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.08-1.38) more likely to experience earlier treatment discontinuation than nonsubsidy enrollees. Receipt of full subsidies did not appear to reduce racial/ethnic inequities in orally administered antimyeloma therapy use. Black full-subsidy and nonsubsidy enrollees were 14% less likely than their White counterparts to ever initiate treatment (full subsidy: aHR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.73-1.02; nonsubsidy: aHR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.74-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Full subsidies alone are insufficient to increase uptake or equitable use of orally administered antimyeloma therapy. Addressing known barriers to care (eg, social determinants of health, implicit bias) could improve access to and use of high-cost antimyeloma therapy.

Real-world treatment patterns and outcomes for patients with advanced melanoma treated with immunotherapy or targeted therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To identify real-world patterns of first line treatment, treatment sequence and outcomes for older adults diagnosed with advanced melanoma who received immunotherapy or targeted therapy. METHODS: The study population included older adults (ages 65+) diagnosed with unresectable or metastatic melanoma between 2012 and 2017 and who received first line immunotherapy or targeted therapy. Using the linked surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-medicare data, we described patterns of first line treatment and treatment sequence through 2018. We used descriptive statistics to report patient and provider characteristics by first line treatment receipt and changes in first line therapy use over calendar time. We also described overall survival (OS) and time to treatment failure (TTF) by first line treatment using the Kaplan-Meier method. For patterns of treatment sequence, we reported commonly observed treatment switch patterns by treatment sub-category and calendar year. RESULTS: The analyses included 584 patients (mean age = 76.3 years). A majority (n = 502) received first line immunotherapy. There was a sustained increase in immunotherapy uptake, most notably from 2015 to 2016. The estimated median OS and TTF were longer with first line immunotherapy than with targeted therapy. Individuals treated with CTLA-4 + PD-1 inhibitors had the longest median OS (28.4 months). The most common treatment switch pattern was from a first line CTLA-4 inhibitor to a second line PD-1 inhibitor. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings inform understanding of treatment patterns of currently used immunotherapies and targeted therapies in older adults with advanced melanoma. Immunotherapy use has increased steadily with PD-1 inhibitors becoming a dominant treatment option since 2015.

Cost-Effectiveness of Pharmacologic Treatment Options for Women With Endocrine-Refractory or Triple-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer.

PURPOSE: Treatments for endocrine-refractory or triple-negative metastatic breast cancer (mBC) are modestly effective at prolonging life and improving quality of life but can be extremely expensive. Given these tradeoffs in quality of life and cost, the optimal choice of treatment sequencing is unclear. Cost-effectiveness analysis can explicitly quantify such tradeoffs, enabling more informed decision making. Our objective was to estimate the societal cost-effectiveness of different therapeutic alternatives in the first- to third-line sequences of single-agent chemotherapy regimens among patients with endocrine-refractory or triple-negative mBC. METHODS: Using three dynamic microsimulation models of 10,000 patients each, three cohorts were simulated, based upon prior chemotherapy exposure: (1) unexposed to either taxane or anthracycline, (2) taxane- and anthracycline-exposed, and (3) taxane-exposed/anthracycline-naive. We focused on the following single-agent chemotherapy regimens as reasonable and commonly used options in the first three lines of therapy for each cohort, based upon feedback from oncologists treating endocrine-refractory or triple-negative mBC: (1) for taxane- and anthracycline-unexposed patients, paclitaxel, capecitabine (CAPE), or pegylated liposomal doxorubicin; (2) for taxane- and anthracycline-exposed patients, Eribulin, CAPE, or carboplatin; and (3) for taxane-exposed/anthracycline-naive patients, pegylated liposomal doxorubicin, CAPE, or Eribulin. RESULTS: In each cohort, accumulated quality-adjusted life-years were similar between regimens, but total societal costs varied considerably. Sequences beginning first-line treatment with paclitaxel, carboplatin, and CAPE, respectively, for cohorts 1, 2, and 3, had lower costs and similar or slightly better outcomes compared with alternative options. CONCLUSION: In this setting where multiple single-agent chemotherapy options are recommended by clinical guidelines and share similar survival and adverse event trajectories, treatment sequencing approaches that minimize costs early may improve the value of care.

The Association of Readmission Reduction Activities with Primary Care Practice Readmission Rates.

BACKGROUND: A great deal of research has focused on how hospitals influence readmission rates. While hospitals play a vital role in reducing readmissions, a significant portion of the work also falls to primary care practices. Despite this critical role of primary care, little empirical evidence has shown what primary care characteristics or activities are associated with reductions in hospital admissions. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between practices' readmission reduction activities and their readmission rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective study of 1,788 practices who responded to the National Survey of Healthcare Organizations and Systems (fielded 2017-2018) and 415,663 hospital admissions for Medicare beneficiaries attributed to those practices from 2016 100% Medicare claims data. We constructed mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate practice-level readmission rates and a linear regression model to evaluate the association between practices' readmission rates with their number of readmission reduction activities. INTERVENTIONS: Standardized composite score, ranging from 0 to 1, representing the number of a practice's readmission reduction capabilities. The composite score was composed of 12 unique capabilities identified in the literature as being significantly associated with lower readmission rates (e.g., presence of care manager, medication reconciliation, shared-decision making, etc.). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Practices' readmission rates for attributed Medicare beneficiaries. KEY RESULTS: Routinely engaging in more readmission reduction activities was significantly associated (P < .05) with lower readmission rates. On average, practices experienced a 0.05 percentage point decrease in readmission rates for each additional activity. Average risk-standardized readmission rates for practices performing 10 or more of the 12 activities in our composite measure were a full percentage point lower than risk-standardized readmission rates for practices engaging in none of the activities. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care practices that engaged in more readmission reduction activities had lower readmission rates. These findings add to the growing body of evidence suggesting that engaging in multiple activities, rather than any single activity, is associated with decreased readmissions.

Travel time, availability of emergency obstetric care, and perceived quality of care associated with maternal healthcare utilisation in Afghanistan: A multilevel analysis.

Limited understanding of factors such as travel time, availability of emergency obstetric care (EmOC), and satisfaction/perceived quality of care on the utilisation of maternal health services exists in fragile and conflict-affect settings. We examined these key factors on three utilisation outcomes: at least one skilled antenatal care (ANC) visit, in-facility delivery, and bypassing the nearest public facility for childbirth in Afghanistan from 2010 to 2015. We used three-level multilevel mixed effects logistic regression models to assess the relationships between women's and their nearest public facilities' characteristics and outcomes. The nearest facility score for satisfaction/perceived quality was associated with having at least one skilled ANC visit (AOR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.36). Women whose nearest facility provided EmOC had a higher odds of in-facility childbirth compared to women whose nearest facility did not (AOR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.48). Nearest hospital travel time (AOR: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.98) and nearest facility satisfaction/perceived quality (AOR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.82) were associated with lower odds of women bypassing their nearest facility. Afghanistan has made progress in expanding access to maternal healthcare services during the ongoing conflict. Addressing key barriers is essential to ensure that women have access to life-saving services.

The Direct Clinic-Level Cost of the Implementation and Use of a Protocol to Assess and Address Social Needs in Diverse Community Health Center Primary Care Clinical Settings.

PURPOSE: Social determinants of health, including food insecurity, housing instability, social isolation, and unemployment are important drivers of health outcomes and utilization. To inform implementation of social needs screening and response protocols, there is a need to identify the associated costs in routine primary care encounters. METHODS: We interviewed key stakeholders in four diverse community health centers that had adopted a widely used social needs screening and response protocol. We evaluated costs using an activity-based costing tool across both the initial implementation phase and ongoing maintenance phase. RESULTS: Clinic costs were associated with workforce development, planning, and electronic health record integration. These initial implementation costs varied by site ($6,644-$49,087). On a per-patient basis, ongoing maintenance costs ranged from $9.76 to $47.98. CONCLUSION: Our findings can aid in designing reimbursement mechanisms tied to social needs screening and response to accelerate translational efforts and promote health equity.

Providers' mediating role for medication adherence among cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a mediation analysis of the provider team's role in changes to chronic condition medication adherence among cancer survivors. METHODS: We used a retrospective, longitudinal cohort design following Medicare beneficiaries from 18-months before through 24-months following cancer diagnosis. We included beneficiaries aged ≥66 years newly diagnosed with breast, colorectal, lung or prostate cancer and using medication for non-insulin anti-diabetics, statins, and/or anti-hypertensives and similar individuals without cancer from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data, 2008-2014. Chronic condition medication adherence was defined as a proportion of days covered ≥ 80%. Provider team structure was measured using two factors capturing the number of providers seen and the historical amount of patient sharing among providers. Linear regressions relying on within-survivor variation were run separately for each cancer site, chronic condition, and follow-up period. RESULTS: The number of providers and patient sharing among providers increased after cancer diagnosis relative to the non-cancer control group. Changes in provider team complexity explained only small changes in medication adherence. Provider team effects were statistically insignificant in 13 of 17 analytic samples with significant changes in adherence. Statistically significant provider team effects were small in magnitude (<0.5 percentage points). CONCLUSIONS: Increased complexity in the provider team associated with cancer diagnosis did not lead to meaningful reductions in medication adherence. Interventions aimed at improving chronic condition medication adherence should be targeted based on the type of cancer and chronic condition and focus on other provider, systemic, or patient factors.

Reducing Poverty-Related Disparities in Cervical Cancer: The Role of HPV Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Near elimination of cervical cancer in the United States is possible in coming decades, yet inequities will delay this achievement for some populations. We sought to explore the effects of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on disparities in cervical cancer incidence between high- and low-poverty U.S. counties. METHODS: We calibrated a dynamic simulation model of HPV infection to reflect average counties in the highest and lowest quartile of poverty (percent of population below federal poverty level), incorporating data on HPV prevalence, cervical cancer screening, and HPV vaccination. We projected cervical cancer incidence through 2070, estimated absolute and relative disparities in incident cervical cancer for high- versus low-poverty counties, and compared incidence with the near-elimination target (4 cases/100,000 women annually). RESULTS: We estimated that, on average, low-poverty counties will achieve near-elimination targets 14 years earlier than high-poverty counties (2029 vs. 2043). Absolute disparities by county poverty will decrease, but relative differences are estimated to increase. We estimate 21,604 cumulative excess cervical cancer cases in high-poverty counties over the next 50 years. Increasing HPV vaccine coverage nationally to the Healthy People 2020 goal (80%) would reduce excess cancer cases, but not alter estimated time to reach the near-elimination threshold. CONCLUSIONS: High-poverty U.S. counties will likely be delayed in achieving near-elimination targets for cervical cancer and as a result will experience thousands of potentially preventable cancers. IMPACT: Alongside vaccination efforts, it is important to address the role of social determinants and health care access in driving persistent inequities by area poverty.

Projecting the Prevalence and Costs of Metastatic Breast Cancer From 2015 through 2030.

Background: This study projected the number of metastatic breast cancer (mBC) cases and costs (medical and productivity) attributable to mBC through 2030 among 3 age groups: younger (aged 18-44 years), midlife (aged 45-64 years), and older women (aged 65 years and older). Methods: We developed a stock/flow model in which women enter the mBC population at initial diagnosis (de novo stage IV) or through progression of an earlier-stage cancer. Women exit the mBC population through death. Input parameters by age and phase of treatment came from the US Census, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and peer-reviewed literature. Results: In 2030, we estimated there would be 246 194 prevalent cases of mBC, an increase of 54.8% from the 2015 estimate of 158 997. We estimated total costs (medical and productivity) of mBC across all age groups and phases of care were $63.4 billion (95% sensitivity range = $59.4-$67.4 billion) in 2015 and would increase to $152.4 billion (95% sensitivity range = $111.6-$220.4 billion) in 2030, an increase of 140%. Trends in estimated costs were higher for younger and midlife women than for older women. Conclusions: The cost of mBC could increase substantially in the coming decade, especially among younger and midlife women. Although accounting for trends in incidence, progression, and survival, our model did not attempt to forecast structural changes such as technological innovations in breast cancer treatment and health-care delivery reforms. These findings can motivate early detection activities, direct value-driven mBC treatment, and provide a useful baseline against which to measure the effect of prevention and treatment efforts.

Evaluating the association of social needs assessment data with cardiometabolic health status in a federally qualified community health center patient population.

BACKGROUND: Health systems are increasingly using standardized social needs screening and response protocols including the Protocol for Responding to and Assessing Patients' Risks, Assets, and Experiences (PRAPARE) to improve population health and equity; despite established relationships between the social determinants of health and health outcomes, little is known about the associations between standardized social needs assessment information and patients' clinical condition. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we examined the relationship between social needs screening assessment data and measures of cardiometabolic clinical health from electronic health records data using two modelling approaches: a backward stepwise logistic regression and a least absolute selection and shrinkage operation (LASSO) logistic regression. Primary outcomes were dichotomized cardiometabolic measures related to obesity, hypertension, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) 10-year risk. Nested models were built to evaluate the utility of social needs assessment data from PRAPARE for risk prediction, stratification, and population health management. RESULTS: Social needs related to lack of housing, unemployment, stress, access to medicine or health care, and inability to afford phone service were consistently associated with cardiometabolic risk across models. Model fit, as measured by the c-statistic, was poor for predicting obesity (logistic = 0.586; LASSO = 0.587), moderate for stage 1 hypertension (logistic = 0.703; LASSO = 0.688), and high for borderline ASCVD risk (logistic = 0.954; LASSO = 0.950). CONCLUSIONS: Associations between social needs assessment data and clinical outcomes vary by cardiometabolic condition. Social needs assessment data may be useful for prospectively identifying patients at heightened cardiometabolic risk; however, there are limits to the utility of social needs data for improving predictive performance.

Identifying Area-Level Disparities in Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Coverage Using Geospatial Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection within the United States (US). Despite clinical agreement on the effectiveness and widespread availability of the prophylactic HPV vaccine, vaccination coverage in the US is suboptimal and varies by geographic region and area-level variables. The goals of this article were to model the variation in vaccination rates among boys and girls within ZIP Codes in Virginia, determine whether neighborhood sociodemographic variables explain variation in HPV vaccination, and identify areas with significantly depressed vaccination coverage. METHODS: We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression models with statewide immunization registry data to consider the correlation in vaccination among boys and girls, as well as the spatial correlation in vaccination for each sex. RESULTS: The results showed low vaccination coverage in our birth cohort (28.9% in girls and 23.8% in boys) relative to the national level (56.8% and 51.8%, respectively). Several area-level variables were significantly and positively associated with vaccination coverage, including population density, percentage of Hispanic population, and average number of vehicles. In addition, there were several areas of significantly lowered vaccination coverage, including predominantly rural ones, and overall large geographic disparities in HPV vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Determining the geospatial patterning and area-level factors associated with HPV vaccination within a prescribed geographic area helps to inform future planning efforts. IMPACT: The results of this study will help inform future planning efforts for geographically targeted interventions and policies, as well as drive new research to implement clinical and community strategies to increase HPV vaccination.